AIAF methodology · Beta
A signal with its assumptions exposed.
AIAF Index and Progress Watch: scores, scope and evidence →
AI Progress Watch follows selected evidence-backed developments worldwide across capability, autonomy, reliability and real-world impact. The Index accompanies this coverage with explicitly labelled editorial scores. It is not a comprehensive global benchmark or a percentage of progress toward AGI.
- Evidence first.Primary sources, credible reporting and reproducible research receive the greatest weight.
- No false precision.The Index is an editorial summary, read alongside Progress Watch evidence and limitations. Historical scores are labelled; future scores need a published calculation and traceable rationale.
- Forecasts stay fixed.Every forecast states its probability, deadline and resolution rule before the outcome is known.
- The Ledger remembers.Original forecasts remain visible and are resolved as correct, incorrect or unresolved with linked evidence.
- Human oversight.Routine AI-assisted updates may be published under the owner’s standing instructions. Disputed claims and material editorial decisions require owner review.
- Corrections stay visible.Material corrections will be dated, explained and linked to the affected article.